CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-10-09T07:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-09T07:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17922/-1
CME Note: The CME is a full asymmetrical halo in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. The associated eruption followed the M1.6 class flare from AR 2882 and was characterized by significant dimming, an EUV wave and post-eruptive arcades seen starting after 2021-10-09T06:33Z mostly to the West from AR 2882 in SDO AIA 193, 304, 171 and in EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-10-09T06:33Z. The CME arrival (a clear shock) is characterized by a sudden simultaneous jump of magnetic field (Bz to almost -14 nT), solar wind speed to 450 km/s from 350 km/s and ion density to above 25 cm^-3. Bz was intermittently in the negative for a few hours and B total reached the maximum of 16 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-12T01:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-11T12:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-10-09T10:48Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 894
Longitude (deg): E10
Latitude (deg): N18
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Jay Merrell

Lead Time: 58.27 hour(s)
Difference: 13.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-10-09T15:30Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement